September Sales = Mixed Message
Inventory in Boston Metroplex increases - but not everywhere.
The Greater Boston market continues to perplex market watchers. August sales usually slow with an increase in September. This year, half of Boston saw an increase in inventory in September... but not appreciably enough to pronounce that the market has finally shifted... especially since the other half of Boston experienced robust sales and a decrease in inventory. In fact, the forecast calls for continued strong sales at least through spring of 2022. We shall see.
Last month, 88% of the Boston area was enjoying a seller's market, much to the angst of buyers. This month, the number of markets still in a seller's market sits around 76%.
Only one neighborhood is now experiencing a buyer's market. Unfortunately for buyers, it is one of the more expensive areas to buy in. As I mentioned last month, it will still take an economic catastrophe at this point to prevent 2021 from becoming our best year ever when it comes to high prices and volume of sales. If you look at last month's market update, you will see that all the towns and neighborhoods have kept in lockstep with each other, such that the order of top-selling or slow-selling areas remains basically unchanged from last month:
|Town||Average||Sold in||Active on||Current||Historical|
Your best opportunities to get a deal on your purchase or at least to avoid bidding wars is to look at areas where the Absorption Rate (AR) is greater than 4.5 months of inventory (ideally, greater than 6). The lower the AR amount, the more competition you will have with other buyers and the less interested sellers will be to negotiate. The best place around Boston to buy today is in the neighborhood of Downtown. With all the inventory on the market, you should be able to negotiate yourself a deal here. This said, there are still often deals to be made most everywhere, because when sellers overprice their homes, they often come down lower than had they priced their homes correctly to begin with!
You might also look at the numbers in the Current Supply column. Based upon the number of sales in September alone and the number of properties available on 10/1/21, things appear to be looking up for you. For example, Bay Village ended up with the worst record for September with 11 months of inventory on hand.
Unlike buyers, you will find many areas of the greater Boston area favor sellers. Look, for example, at Concord where the supply of inventory at the end of September is 11 points lower than the historic supply of inventory on the market. Areas like this and others have outperformed the rest of the metroplex. Even in a changing market, a properly-priced home should sell very quickly in any of the areas where the Inventory Supply and the Historical AR are both 1 or less. The worst place around Boston to try and sell today is in the neighborhood of Downtown due to its low turnover rate.
Whether you are buying or selling or both, contact me if you want the best strategy for dealing with the market your particular area is in now.