Aug. 9, 2021

Outlook for Boston Real Estate Market

Has Our Real Estate Market Peaked?

Sold in 2 days

This charming-looking home in West Roxbury sold after having an open house; but...

there was no bidding war and it sold for less than asking. Why?
The principal reason why most markets across the metroplex saw a decrease in sales and an increase in inventory in July can be attributed to the normal ebb and flow of real estate activity. Unlike what the general public thinks, summertime is not the best to sell. In fact, it is a good time to buy. Historically speaking, sales fall off in July and August around the metroplex and then pick up again in September-October. 
This past month, we have seen slight to significant changes in market activity. Whether this can be attributed to a normal summer hiatus or to the market having peaked. We will know more over the next couple of months. I am inclined to believe that the market has peaked because up until now, sales have been a constant high month after month, such that 2021 is positioned to be the best year ever for volume of sales and pricing. 
Considering that most of eastern Massachusetts is still a great place to be a selling one's home, it is easier to list those areas (just Boston neighborhoods) which favor buyers. You will notice that most towns and neighborhoods have kept in lockstep with each other, such that the order of top-selling or slow-selling areas remains basically unchanged from last month:
Town or Avg Sold in Active on Inventory Historical
Neighborhood YTD July 8/1/21 Supply AR
Melrose 32 19 16 0.8 0.1
Walpole 31 22 17 0.8 0.1
Sharon 28 12 15 1.3 0.2
Medford 64 57 35 0.6 0.2
Weymouth 66 55 50 0.9 0.2
Sudbury 28 16 23 1.4 0.2
Medfield 19 10 14 1.4 0.2
Winthrop 17 11 18 1.6 0.3
Revere 46 39 41 1.1 0.3
Ashland 22 15 7 0.5 0.3
Sherborn 8 5 10 2.0 0.3
Norwood 32 26 10 0.4 0.3
Wayland 22 12 7 0.6 0.4
Somerville 84 54 102 1.9 0.4
Natick 51 45 22 0.5 0.5
Framingham 60 36 34 0.9 0.5
Arlington 50 19 25 1.3 0.5
Malden 44 29 22 0.8 0.5
Dedham 36 14 20 1.4 0.6
Foxborough 21 16 11 0.7 0.6
Belmont 30 16 15 0.9 0.6
Needham 37 18 22 1.2 0.7
Waltham 58 38 36 0.9 0.7
Braintree 40 29 32 1.1 0.8
Mission Hill 8 5 4 0.8 0.9
Everett 37 32 26 0.8 0.9
West Roxbury 37 24 30 1.3 1.0
Jamaica Plain 79 49 51 1.0 1.0
Chelsea 31 20 32 1.6 1.0
Wellesley 36 22 34 1.5 1.0
Hyde Park 21 16 21 1.3 1.0
Watertown 31 22 35 1.6 1.1
Dorchester 104 67 87 1.3 1.1
Charlestown 45 30 38 1.3 1.1
Milton 27 16 30 1.9 1.2
Quincy 99 86 108 1.3 1.2
Westwood 25 13 25 1.9 1.3
Canton 43 36 44 1.2 1.3
Roslindale 44 29 41 1.4 1.3
Lexington 38 22 47 2.1 1.4
Newton 113 82 132 1.6 1.5
Lincoln 6 1 10 10.0 1.6
Cambridge 81 57 109 1.9 1.6
Concord 21 16 21 1.3 1.9
Mattapan 9 9 16 1.8 1.9
North End 17 6 22 3.7 2.0
Weston 19 9 34 3.8 2.1
Brighton 76 43 65 1.5 2.2
Roxbury 21 9 35 3.9 2.3
Dover 7 4 20 5.0 2.5
Brookline 76 43 146 3.4 2.6
Allston 10 5 22 4.4 2.8
Chestnut Hill 25 15 55 3.7 2.8
Bay Village 2 2 6 3.0 3.0
East Boston 42 43 119 2.8 3.1
South Boston 126 86 157 1.8 3.4
Beacon Hill 26 12 57 4.8 3.5
South End 68 35 162 4.6 3.6
West End 4 3 12 4.0 3.6
Seaport 13 7 42 6.0 3.9
Back Bay 36 16 106 6.6 4.1
Fenway 19 6 53 8.8 4.9
Waterfront 13 12 34 2.8 5.2
Chinatown 10 5 52 10.4 7.1
Downtown 6 3 43 14.3 8.7

BUYERS

Your best opportunities to get a deal on your purchase or at least to avoid bidding wars is to look at areas where the AR is greater than 4.5 (ideally, greater than 6). The lower the AR amount, the more competition you will have with other buyers and the less interested sellers will be to negotiate. The two best places around Boston to buy today are in the neighborhoods of Chinatown and Downtown. With all the inventory on the market, you should be able to negotiate yourself a deal here.

SELLERS

Unlike buyers, you will find most areas of the greater Boston area favor sellers. Look, for example, at Concord or South Boston where the number of supply of inventory at the end of July is lower than than the historic supply of inventory on the market. Areas like these two have outperformed the rest of the metroplex. Even in a changing market, a properly-priced home should sell very quickly in any of the areas where the Inventory Supply and the Historical AR are both 1 or less.

The two worst places around Boston to try and sell today are in the neighborhoods of Chinatown and Downtown.

Whether you are buying or selling or both, contact me if you want the best strategy for dealing with the market your particular area is in now.

Posted in Market Updates
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