June 6, 2021

June 2021 Sales Report

Steady As She Goes!

Almost Summer

In spite of uncontrolled spending by the Feds and rising inflation, home sales in Boston continue at an unrelenting pace.

The consumer confidence which has fueled this "bull" market is thanks to the Feds maintaining artificially low interest rates in spite of rising inflation... the normal cause of rising interest rates.
Although many markets around Boston begin to peak in June and decline in July, it is unlikely that sales will slow as much as usual. In fact, many towns are seeing the greatest number of sales and highest prices ever. This is really unusual due to the shortage of inventory we have been experiencing since Covid struck last year.
Looking across the housing spectrum of the Boston metropolis, we find little change in the market over the past 30 days. Neighborhoods that were experiencing a buyer's market are still in a buyer's market. Towns that were experiencing a seller's market are still enjoying a seller's market. In spite of this great news, all but 10 of these areas saw a weakening seller's market:

May's Strongest Markets

1. Walpole
2. Sharon
3. Weymouth
4. Sudbury
5. Revere
6. Foxborough                                                                                       
7. Mission Hill
8. Westwood
9. Mattapan
10. Brookline
Although buyers are paying top dollar in most areas, at least low interest rates have been making it affordable; however, rates will go up and sellers will find themselves lowering their prices to attract buyers as a counter measure to higher interest rates.
Below tells the tale of the sales activity in 60+ towns and neighborhoods in and around Boston. Look up the name of the town/area which interests you in the alphabetized list on the left. Based upon the number of homes Active on 6/5/21 and the number of homes sold in May, we can determine how many months (Inventory Supply) it will take before all the Active inventory is sold off... provided no other homes are placed on the market until then. Since homes are continually coming on and off the market, it is wiser to look at how the market absorbs its inventory over time (Historical AR). Why? because spring months are naturally going to have higher sales than winter months when sales are slower. As an example, the Seaport District of Boston had  22 home sales in May. When we divide the number of homes on the market (47) by those same 22 sales you only have 2.1 months' of inventory during peak season. The story changes dramatically in July and August when market activity slows. Suddenly we are looking closer at 4.2 months of inventory. Further explanations follow the spreadsheet.
Town or Avg Sold in Active on Inventory Historical
Neighborhood YTD1 May 6/5/21 Supply2 AR4
Allston 11 15 23 1.5 2.8
Arlington 55 78 33 0.4 0.7
Ashland 25 39 14 0.4 0.6
Back Bay 35 31 136 4.4 5.3
Bay Village 2 4 3 0.8 1.4
Beacon Hill 24 17 71 4.2 4.5
Belmont 34 51 32 0.6 1.3
Braintree 43 55 41 0.7 1.0
Brighton 79 91 84 0.9 2.8
Brookline 79 91 143 1.6 2.5
Cambridge 91 132 123 0.9 1.7
Canton 46 57 51 0.9 1.5
Charlestown 47 54 68 1.3 2.0
Chelsea 30 26 41 1.6 1.3
Chestnut Hill 26 27 57 2.1 2.9
Chinatown 9 9 56 6.2 7.6
Concord 23 30 31 1.0 2.6
Dedham 38 48 27 0.6 0.7
Dorchester 101 90 124 1.4 1.5
Dover 8 13 19 1.5 2.3
Downtown 6 9 48 5.3 9.4
East Boston 66 78 128 1.6 2.9
Everett 36 30 30 1.0 1.0
Fenway 19 18 52 2.9 4.8
Foxborough 22 29 14 0.5 0.7
Framingham 71 112 54 0.5 0.8
Hyde Park 23 34 24 0.7 1.2
Jamaica Plain 80 87 65 0.7 1.2
Lexington 43 64 53 0.8 1.4
Lincoln 6 8 16 2.0 2.4
Malden 44 43 44 1.0 1.1
Mattapan 10 16 9 0.6 1.0
Medfield 22 34 19 0.6 0.3
Medford 65 67 58 0.9 0.3
Melrose 35 49 33 0.7 0.3
Milton 30 43 31 0.7 1.2
Mission Hill 7 2 4 2.0 0.9
Natick 52 58 45 0.8 1.0
Needham 38 45 41 0.9 1.2
Newton 122 158 157 1.0 1.7
North End 16 13 26 2.0 2.4
Norwood 35 45 22 0.5 0.8
Quincy 104 121 141 1.2 1.6
Revere 47 51 49 1.0 0.3
Roslindale 48 66 43 0.7 1.3
Roxbury 21 21 35 1.7 2.3
Seaport 15 22 47 2.1 4.2
Sharon 28 30 24 0.8 0.2
Sherborn 8 9 14 1.6 0.4
Somerville 91 121 120 1.0 0.5
South End 69 73 164 2.2 3.6
South Boston 123 111 179 1.6 3.8
Sudbury 29 33 23 0.7 0.2
Walpole 34 47 21 0.4 0.2
Waltham 64 90 51 0.6 0.9
Watertown 33 45 53 1.2 1.6
Wayland 23 26 9 0.3 0.5
Wellesley 39 51 52 1.0 1.5
West End 4 4 18 4.5 5.3
West Roxbury 39 50 46 0.9 1.4
Weston 21 27 36 1.3 2.2
Westwood 26 31 27 0.9 1.3
Weymouth 71 92 57 0.6 0.2
Winthrop 18 20 24 1.2 0.3

BUYERS

Your best opportunities to get a deal on your purchase or at least to avoid bidding wars is to look at areas where the AR is greater than 4.5 (ideally, greater than 6). The lower the AR amount, the more competition you will have with other buyers and the less interested sellers will be to negotiate.

SELLERS

Unlike buyers, you will find most areas of the greater Boston area favor sellers. Look, for example, at Waltham or Walpole where the number of sales in May were way higher than the average monthly current number of homes on the market and the current number of homes on the market. Therefore, a properly-priced home should sell super fast in any of the areas where the AR is 1 or less.

The two worst places around Boston to try and sell today are in the neighborhoods of Chinatown and Downtown. That also makes them the two neighborhoods where can can negotiate yourself a deal.

Whether you are buying or selling or both, contact me if you want the best strategy for dealing with the market your particular area is in now.

Posted in Market Updates
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